For the Democrats to gain the coveted 60-member, ‘filibuster-proof’ majority in the United States Senate, they were going to need to defeat incumbents of the Republican Party in traditionally red states.

The Democrats’ prospects were brightened early Tuesday night as New Hampshire and North Carolina both rejected sitting Republican senators, electing Democrats. Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, while Jeanne Shaheen ended the Senatorial career of John E. Sununu in New Hampshire.

In Minnesota, comedian-turned-politician Al Franken (D) upset incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R). Vacant seats that had belonged to Republicans in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado were also scooped up by Democrats.

At press time, the Democrats had picked up five seats in the Senate, extending their lead to 56-40 with four seats still in play. It appears unlikely they will reach the lofty goal of a 60-member majority.

The GOP had one victory with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell squeaking out 53 percent of the Kentucky vote to stave off local businessman Bruce Lunsford.

During the election’s final weeks – being conducted in the shadow of America’s financial crisis – supposedly safe seats in the Senate fell into play for voters.

On the House of Representatives side, Democrats also anticipated picking up seats in the 435 member lower house of Congress. Twenty-six Republican representatives retired leading up to this election amidst a gridlocked House, which the Democrats led 236 to 199.

With every seat up for reelection, 25 races were identified as ‘battlegrounds’ by The New York Times. At press time, 16 of the 25 were won by Democrats.

The party was leading with 251 districts compared to the Republicans’ 172. There were eight seats undecided at press time.

The Democrats entered the race with a 31-seat lead in the House, though every member is up for reelection. Election analysts predicted the Democrats could gain an additional 20 representatives once all the votes are counted late Wednesday morning.

The gains were foreshadowed earlier in 2008. In three special elections, Democrats won in traditionally Republican districts in Louisiana, Mississippi and Illinois – where the seat of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hassert was lost after he stepped down.

At the same time the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outspent their Republican rivals $73 million to $20 million, according to The New York Times.

The 2008 strategy for Democrats chiefly centered on the promise of fresh approaches to the economic crisis, a new vision for the wars in the Middle East, and redistributive tax cuts. There was also a concentrated message tying Republics to the Bush presidency which faced historically high disapproval ratings.

At the same time, the ‘top-of-the-ticket effect’ appears to have played a strong role in 2008. With President-elect Barack Obama winning 52 percent of the popular votes (more than 60 million ballots), Democrats across the country were able to ride along on the coattails of their presidential candidate.

Obama made inroads throughout red states. While he did not win some of these states, he was able to help flip Congressional seats to his party, including in North Carolina.

In a show of the definitive nature of the Democratic gains, the last Republican in all of New England – Connecticut’s Chris Shays – fell to Democrat Jim Himes in the state’s 4th district.

The consequences in the Senate

The importance of the 60-vote majority in the Senate can be ‘overrated,’ said Tom Raven, professor of political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs.

Even without the ‘filibuster-proof’ lead, the Democrats will often be able to rely on moderate Republicans opposed to legislative gridlock to pass procedural measures that will allow the majority party to get its issues to the floor for a vote, said Raven, a congressional expert.

The consequences in the House

The House agenda is set by the leadership that will remain in firm Democratic control under Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The only measure that could further enhance the Democrat’s power in the House would be controlling three fourth of the votes (290), and that is out of reach.

Many of the seats that switched to the Democratic column were in historically strong red districts. Raven said it can be expected that many will have a more centrist agenda than the party leadership.

There will be two primary concerns for the Democratic caucus in the 111th Congress, Raven said. The first will be governing in a one-party government, and the second will be securing reelection in 2010. Midterm elections are typically difficult for incumbent parties who also hold the White House.

The Republican response to their new and increasingly limited role in government will be to unite and attract moderate Democrats whenever possible, Raven said.

msreilly@syr.edu

Published on November 4, 2008 at 12:00 pm